Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH HAVE
REMAINED AT 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW THAT PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB AND THERE
IS A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE
TO A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. I AM A
LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE
GFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE.  BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE
WILL BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL NOT PICK IT
UP...WHILE THE UK MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TAKING THE
CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...SOME MODELS SHOW
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OTHERS SHOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 26.7N  78.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 27.2N  78.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 27.7N  79.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 28.1N  79.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 28.7N  80.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N  81.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 
 
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