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Hurricane NATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO
THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH AND
IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NATE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.
 
NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 30.9N  63.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 32.0N  61.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  57.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 35.0N  52.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 36.5N  47.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 39.5N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  26.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1200Z 50.0N  17.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Sep-2005 14:40:09 UTC