Hurricane NATE

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HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...WITH ODT ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT.  NATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES IS APPROACHING NATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FLOW MAY
BEGIN TO RESTRICT AND/OR UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHEAR
BEGINS TO INCREASE.  THE GFS FORECASTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 72
HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AT 035/4. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS WEAKENING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY
AND HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE
SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH
THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 29.5N  65.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 30.1N  65.3W    80 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  63.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 32.5N  61.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 34.2N  57.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  47.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 41.0N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1800Z 45.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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