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Hurricane NATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE THIS
MORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 70 KT. 
THEREFORE...NATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE
SYSTEM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR
BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY STRONG.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
QUIKSCAT DATA.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOT DEFINITIVE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN
TURNING NATE TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BASED ON
THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...
THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  

BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...NATE COULD STILL MOVE VERY NEAR
OVER BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 29.2N  66.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  66.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 30.4N  65.2W    80 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 31.6N  63.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 33.1N  59.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 36.0N  50.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 39.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1200Z 43.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Sep-2005 15:10:08 UTC