Tropical Storm NATE

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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
 
ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DETERMINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE
IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A
WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 50 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
DIRECTLY OVER NATE...AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.
 
NATE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN TO
THE WEST...AND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT.  THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE
NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO WESTWARD MOTION
BEFORE RECURVATURE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL TAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO TAKES THE
CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.  A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 28.7N  66.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 28.8N  67.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 29.2N  67.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 29.7N  67.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  66.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 33.5N  61.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  52.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 43.0N  38.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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