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Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE EYE STRUCTURE OF MARIA IS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE...IT IS ABOUT
TIME. SATELLITE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TAKING
ON MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF MARIA. 
SOUTHWEST SHEAR MAY ALSO BE INCREASING A BIT DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM
TROPICAL STORM NATE. ANY SHORT-TERM WEAKENING SHOULD END WHEN
MID-LATITUDE ENERGY GETS CLOSER TO MARIA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN A COUPLE DAYS.  CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
IS GAINING MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A SHALLOWER WARM
CORE AND MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.  

THERE ARE NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE INITIAL MOTION... ABOUT 045/13.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE AFFECTING MARIA
SOON AND CAUSE SOME ACCELERATION. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA CAPTURES THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF PREVIOUS... BRINGING A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ICELAND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE... THEN PROBABLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER
SCANDINAVIA. 
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 41.6N  41.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 43.4N  39.7W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 46.7N  37.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 50.5N  35.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 54.5N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 60.5N  27.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 66.0N  14.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     14/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 09-Sep-2005 20:40:10 UTC