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Hurricane MARIA (Text)

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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN
EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF
FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING
OVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT
045/10.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST
IS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH
AND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND. 
WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 39.5N  46.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 40.5N  45.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 46.0N  38.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 53.0N  35.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 59.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1800Z 63.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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