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Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA IS AGAIN DECREASING AS THE
HURRICANE INGESTS DEEP-LAYER COOLER AND DRYER AIR.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AT 2106Z....AND A
COMPROMISE OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  MARIA SHOULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BUT IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

MARIA IS MOVING 050/12.  A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITHOUT
MUCH ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 120 HR.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DONE THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 36 HR AND ON THE LEFT SIDE AFTER THAT.  THE 72-120 HR
PORTION OF THE TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS
OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 37.5N  49.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 38.6N  47.7W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 40.2N  45.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 41.7N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 43.2N  41.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 47.0N  36.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 52.0N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z 58.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Sep-2005 02:40:08 UTC