Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
 
IT APPEARS THAT MARIA PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO. THE NOW
IS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND OPEN TO THE WEST...AND CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
NOW ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY CURRENT
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MARIA IS MOVING AT 020/06. THE NARROW RIDGE MID-LEVEL TO NORTH OF
MARIA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

DRY AIR...COOLER WATER...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30 KT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE MARIA.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME
INCREASED BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY
STEADY INTENSITY FOR THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 33.3N  56.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 34.2N  55.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 35.6N  53.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 36.9N  52.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 38.2N  49.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 41.0N  44.3W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0600Z 50.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-Sep-2005 09:10:07 UTC