Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

THE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE DURING THE DAY.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW GIVE A WIND SPEED OF 90
KT.  AN EXCELLENT TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1556Z SHOWED THAT A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL STRUCTURE WAS DEVELOPING....SO THE STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY
FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST...WHICH
IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.  BY 4 DAYS OR
SOONER...GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW MARIA TRANSFORMING INTO A
LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS AND THIS IS PROBABLY A
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.

MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ADVISORIES.  THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  56.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.6N  56.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 34.9N  55.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 36.3N  53.4W    85 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 37.4N  51.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 40.0N  46.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 43.0N  39.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1800Z 48.0N  33.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 05-Sep-2005 20:55:08 UTC