Hurricane MARIA

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HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE
STILL 4.5 AT 12Z...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT SINCE THEN...
WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC RING OF SURROUNDING COLD CLOUD TOPS. 
RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 4.8...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
EVIDENT...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS
TO INFLUENCE MARIA...WITHIN 1-2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SHOWN
BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...AFTER MARIA MOVES
NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ITS EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE FOR A WHILE.

MARIA HAS SLOWED WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH...AND THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 360/7.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MARIA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE...THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
ACCELERATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OT
THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 31.8N  56.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  56.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 34.4N  55.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 35.8N  54.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 37.0N  52.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 39.0N  48.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 42.0N  41.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1200Z 46.0N  33.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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