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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE
CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LASTEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS
THAT MARIA IS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 4.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND A
WARM OCEAN IS AHEAD OF MARIA...AND I CAN NOT IGNORE THE SHIPS...THE
GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH BRING THE MARIA TO NEAR
100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MARIA TO
REACH AT LEAST 90 KNOTS AND THEN SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 3
DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.

MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
MARIA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
MOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF
A TROUGH IT SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE ALL MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THERE IS A
LARGE VARIATION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AMONG
MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 26.1N  54.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N  56.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 30.0N  57.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  57.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  58.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  57.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 39.0N  53.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 41.0N  48.1W    65 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Sep-2005 20:55:08 UTC