Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATRINA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
 
RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATES KATRINA'S
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MUCH LOWER...NOW AT 971 MB. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 81 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH
SUPPORTS AT LEAST 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT HAS
NOT SAMPLED THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE NOAA/KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATES WINDS AS HIGH AS 91 KT AT
AROUND 3000 FT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A
LITTLE LOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. RADAR DATA INDICATES KATRINA
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TRACK SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DECREASES.
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
KATRINA IS FORECAST BY THE ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TIMING OF THE
EROSION OF THE RIDGE AND AN INDUCED NORTHWARD MOTION OF KATRINA IS
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
LARGE SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A
LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...A RECENT
DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW UP TO 80 KT. SO...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
INTENSITIES.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 25.1N  82.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N  83.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  84.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.2N  85.2W    85 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.1N  85.9W    90 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  86.3W   100 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  83.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     31/1200Z 40.5N  77.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2005 15:10:06 UTC