Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm IRENE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005
 
IRENE CONTINUES TO LOOK INSIGNIFICANT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
SHOWS NO INDICATIONS OF RESTRENGTHENING ANY TIME SOON.  THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS BANDING FEATURES.  THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING SHEARED BY WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-ATLANTIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA FROM A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER RESEARCH MISSION WITH THE NOAA G-IV JET CONFIRM
THAT IRENE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY DRY MID- TO UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC AIR.  AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO ENTER A
WEAKER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SINCE THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE SHOWN
IN THE FORECAST. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  IRENE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA.  HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OF OPINION AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO
THE CONFIGURATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AT DAYS 4-5.  BY THAT TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
DAY 3 AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTERWARDS...BUT NOT AS FAR
EAST AS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 22.6N  52.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  54.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 23.7N  56.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  59.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  61.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 28.0N  64.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N  65.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 32.0N  65.0W    45 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 09-Aug-2005 02:40:06 UTC