Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HARVEY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005
 
HARVEY IS STEADILY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPOSED AND THE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER... AND ALONG A NARROW BAND STRETCHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 45 KT...WHICH
IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
AS HARVEY GOES THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 HOURS... OR
LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...NOW 050/19. 
HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT HARVEY WILL SLOW DOWN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEANDER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
LEAVE THE STORM BEHIND...WHERE IT MUST WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT
MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL DAYS
FROM NOW.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR HARVEY WILL TRAVEL
EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING...WITH NOGAPS BEING THE FAST OUTLIER AND
THE GFS AND GFDL BEING MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION BUT IS STILL FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY DUE TO THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED ACCELERATION THIS MORNING.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 40.3N  47.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 41.2N  45.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 42.2N  42.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 42.7N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 42.9N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 43.0N  35.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 42.5N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1200Z 42.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 08-Aug-2005 15:10:05 UTC