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Tropical Storm GERT


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE LOCATED...BUT
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND A DEFINITE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.  RATHER...THE DATA FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE AIRCRAFT WINDS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE ADVISORY
POSITION AND A SECOND NEAR THE OLD TRACK...I.E. FARTHER SOUTH. 
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONCLUSIVE...I WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE ADVISORY
LOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER ESTIMATE
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  GERT IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THE STORM COULD
STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/8.  A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM
GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH
WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 21.1N  96.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.7N  97.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 22.3N  98.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jul-2005 14:40:04 UTC