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Tropical Storm FRANKLIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005
 
THE EARLIER BURST OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE
THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 28/0953Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO...
SUGGESTING THAT FRANKLIN MAY HAVE REACHED NEAR 50 KT INTENSITY
BETWEEN 06-09Z. THAT INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM NESDIS CIRA OF 47 KT AND 998 MB AT 0807Z...
AND A 12Z TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER
...SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECEASING AND BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/09. IT APPEARS THAT FRANKLIN
IS FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE THE LONG AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE
OVERALL BEST PERFORMING MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PROTRUDING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF
FRANKLIN...WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED THE SHEAR NOW THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT
THIS SHEAR PATTERN AND CURRENT DISRUPTION OF THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ONCE FRANKLIN MAKES THE TURN AND
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO.
RECENT SHIP OBS ALSO REVEAL THAT THE 26C SST ISOTHERM ACTUALLY
EXTENDS UP TO 40N LATITUDE...ABOUT 2 DEGREES NORTH OF WHAT THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...THERE REMAINS ABOUT
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE THE VERTICAL REMAINS LOW. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

IF FRANKLIN MAKES A SLOWER TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY
FOREAST...THEN TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BRUSH
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN 60-72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 36.2N  69.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 37.5N  67.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 39.3N  64.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 41.1N  61.6W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 43.0N  57.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 47.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Jul-2005 14:40:07 UTC