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Tropical Storm FRANKLIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005
 
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATED FRANKLIN EARLIER TODAY AND
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND...BASED ON DROPSONDE-DERIVED WIND PROFILES...MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT.  SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED MARKEDLY WITH AN INCREASING
SEPARATION OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER FROM AN AREA OF DIMINISHING DEEP
CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE STORM WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE
STRONGER AROUND 12Z TODAY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 35 KT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEARER
TO THE CENTER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT VERY LIKELY AND FRANKLIN SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING DUE TO COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION.
 
FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY...TAKING ONE STEP BACKWARDS
FOR EVERY FEW STEPS FORWARD.  LATELY THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING
IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME LOCATION...SO STATIONARY IS THE BEST BET
FOR INITIAL MOTION.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A
RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 60W IN 2-3 DAYS...SO A MORE DETERMINED
MOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY THAT
TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODEL SUITE.  ALTHOUGH THIS LESSENS THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
BERMUDA...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRANKLIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 30.7N  69.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 31.2N  69.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 31.6N  69.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 32.3N  68.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  68.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 36.0N  67.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Jul-2005 20:40:04 UTC