Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
 
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM...AND THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED...OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A RAGGED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW-CLOUD LINES APPEAR
TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL DEFINED.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET AT 45 KT FOLLOWING LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI.  
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL
PERSIST...SO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED
TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COLDER WATERS BY 120 HOURS...AND IF THE
SHEAR CAUSES EVEN MORE VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE SYSTEM...IT COULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT.  HOWEVER...THESE SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE TENACIOUS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/8.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM FRANKLIN WITH A DAY OR SO.  THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD TO KEEP FRANKLIN FROM BEING BLOCKED BY A RIDGE THAT
IS PREDICTED TO BUILD NEAR BERMUDA IN SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 31.4N  70.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 31.9N  69.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 32.5N  67.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 33.3N  66.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 33.9N  65.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 35.5N  63.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 38.0N  60.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 41.0N  55.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jul-2005 20:40:04 UTC