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Tropical Storm FRANKLIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005
 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF FRANKLIN HAS IMPROVED THIS
MORNING AND THE SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE HAS LESSENED. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND FOR THE CLOUD PATTERN TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS NOTED BY A
1046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND SURFACE OBS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 49 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT A 39-KT SURFACE WIND.
HOWEVER...THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF
55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 45 KT...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/02 KT. THE FIRST TWO RECON
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITIONS...
AND THE MOST RECENT FIX CAME IN ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
FIRST ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND
MELBOURNE INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL NET MOTION...OTHER PERHAPS A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND 12Z INDICATE THAT
FRANKLIN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OR WITHIN A 
FAIRLY STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS RESULT...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND WEAKENS
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME AND...IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN
IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGE
TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA AND TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS NHC98 AND A9UK...WHICH MAKE A SMALL
LOOP NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THEN TURN FRANKLIN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS. THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS
HAVE ALSO PERSISTED WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE
CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72-96
HOURS.

THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS STEADILY WEAKEND THIS MORNING...AND
THE VARIOUS MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AS PER THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IF
FRANKLIN REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND DOES NOT RECURVE AS
FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES AFTER 48 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE
HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 26.8N  77.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 27.7N  77.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 29.0N  77.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 29.9N  76.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.4N  74.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.3N  71.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 32.5N  68.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 34.0N  62.5W    60 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Jul-2005 15:10:03 UTC