Hurricane EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005
 
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER... BUT A STRONG RAINBAND PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
BETWEEN MONTERREY MEXICO AND THE TEXAS BORDER.  DOPPLER VELOCITIES
FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS RADAR STILL INDICATE WINDS NEAR 50 KT AT
ABOUT 10000 FEET IN THAT BAND... SUGGESTING THAT WINDS NEAR 45 KT
COULD STILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  EMILY THEREFORE REMAINS
A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.  INITIAL MOTION IS DUE WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 9 KT... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS JUST ABOUT TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST
MEXICO... AND THIS SHOULD SOON LEAD TO A DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FROM THE CONVECTION.  EMILY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 25.0N 100.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 25.0N 101.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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