Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005
 
EMILY IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. REPORTS FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN. 
THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FELL BY AT LEAST 13 MB OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS. 
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 90
KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 80 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT I PRESUME THERE HAS
BEEN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THIS DECREASE IN
PRESSURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 85
KT...CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.   THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE UKMET
AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHWARD TRACKS.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERIES AHEAD OF EMILY IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE
WAY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF
INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR
SOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 12.7N  64.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.3N  66.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  69.9W   100 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.6N  73.3W   105 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  76.8W   110 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  83.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W    90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1200Z 22.5N  94.0W   100 KT
 
 
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