Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A
SMALL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  DESPITE PROBLEMS WITH
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT...THE CREW HAS BEEN ABLE TO PHONE IN KEY
OBSERVATIONS.  OUR THANKS TO THE CREW FOR RESPONDING ON SUCH SHORT
NOTICE AND FOR THEIR PERSISTENCE IN TRYING TO GET THE DATA OUT.

SO FAR...THE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A FEW SMALL SPOTS WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OVER 40 KT...INDICATING THAT THE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...BUT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME THE CYCLONE
WILL BE OVER WATER. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH TEXAS...AND REACH THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2200Z 19.9N  95.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 20.2N  96.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 20.7N  97.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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