Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO BE 55 KT IN THE TABLE
 
ARLENE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER
CORE.  MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF
SHEARED SYSTEMS.  SHIP AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB...AND 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS RECENTLY PEAKED AT 69 KT.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 55 KT. IN THE CURRENT MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ARLENE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE
INCREASED...AS ANTICIPATED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF
DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE
TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE
MUCH EARLIER.
 
SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 25.7N  85.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 27.8N  86.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 30.4N  87.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 32.6N  87.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 35.5N  87.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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