ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ARLENE HAS STRENGTHENED WHILE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 64 KT ABOUT 110 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1130Z. THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON THIS DATA...AND BASED UPON A 35 KT REPORT FROM SHIP PFRX AT 1200Z. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...AND ARLENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS 60 KT IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ARLENE COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. SINCE YESTERDAY...ARLENE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...SEVERAL CENTERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IS BASED UPON A MEAN OF THE VARIOUS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS. DESPITE THE RELOCATION TO THE NORTH...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 24.0N 84.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 26.2N 85.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 28.8N 87.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 31.1N 88.5W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1200Z 33.8N 88.8W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1200Z 40.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 10-Jun-2005 15:10:01 UTC