Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
 
ARLENE HAS STRENGTHENED WHILE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 64 KT ABOUT 110 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT
1130Z.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS
THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON THIS DATA...AND BASED UPON A 35
KT REPORT FROM SHIP PFRX AT 1200Z.  THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING...AND ARLENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS 60 KT IN
24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ARLENE COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE.

SINCE YESTERDAY...ARLENE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER.  IN FACT...SEVERAL
CENTERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION.  THE
INITIAL POSITION...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...IS BASED UPON A MEAN OF THE VARIOUS SMALLER
CIRCULATIONS.  DESPITE THE RELOCATION TO THE NORTH...ARLENE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 24.0N  84.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 26.2N  85.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 28.8N  87.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 31.1N  88.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 33.8N  88.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 40.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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