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Tropical Storm ARLENE
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION. IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING ARLENE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING WHEN
THE SHEAR RELAXES AS THE UPPER-TROUGH WEAKENS IN 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THAT SHOWS A DECREASE IN
THE SHEAR WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING.
ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6
KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
BUILD...AND THAT PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...IT IS NOT AS FAST AS MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
IN SUMMARY...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OR PASS VERY NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. IT THEN WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE IT
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 20.2N 84.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.5N 84.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 88.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 13/1800Z 40.0N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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