ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ARLENE IS SOMEWHEAT SHEARED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RATHER STRONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. THIS COULD ALLOW ARLENE TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS NOT WELL DEFINED...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INITIAL MOTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MAYBE A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 19.4N 84.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 86.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 87.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/1200Z 38.5N 85.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Jun-2005 14:55:01 UTC