Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT...OVER ALL...THE WIND FIELD OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
REMAIN AT LEAST 75 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT ARE 34 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEW NOAA BUOY
42056.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 12-24 HR.  THIS MOTION
WILL LIKELY BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
IN ABOUT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND
UKMET...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE BROAD WIND STRUCTURE...THE CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...
AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
SUGGEST THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. 
INDEED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY
FORECASTING ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
BOTH CALLING FOR WINDS TO REACH ABOUT 50 KT IN 36-48 HR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SIMILAR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.
 
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE
OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME
FRAME...AS WELL AS THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 18.6N  83.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  84.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  84.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.7N  85.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 27.2N  87.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 31.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 36.5N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
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