Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004

...DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ZIHUATANEJO.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 110 MILES... 180 KM... SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK COULD BRING
THE CENTER TO THE COAST.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS.
 
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...15.6 N... 98.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM
PDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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