Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT RAPIDLY
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...
THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...
MARTINIQUE...AND ST. LUCIA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  57.8 WEST OR ABOUT  170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 185 MILES... 
300 KM...EAST OF TOBAGO.
 
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSING
THE INTENSITY OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.
 
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 57.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 5 AM AST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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