ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 ...FRANCES WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...HEADING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRANCES SHOULD MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. RADAR WIND VELOCITY DATA SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF FRANCES MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY IN HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT DAYTONA BEACH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...27.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 17:42:36 UTC