ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 ...FRANCES NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES ...70 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A RETURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE EXPECTED AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BORDERLINE CATEGORY TWO/THREE HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES...175 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES OVER THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 06:02:35 UTC