Hurricane IVAN
ZCZC MIASPFAT4 ALL
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HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.6N 83.0W 46 X X X 46 MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 7 5 14
22.2N 84.1W 16 16 X X 32 FT MYERS FL X 1 7 6 14
23.9N 84.8W X 20 5 1 26 VENICE FL X X 7 8 15
MWCG 193N 814W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X X 4 10 14
MUCF 221N 805W 10 2 X 1 13 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 12 13
MUSN 216N 826W 35 1 X X 36 ST MARKS FL X X X 13 13
MUHA 230N 824W 10 13 1 X 24 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 14 15
MUAN 219N 850W 9 19 1 X 29 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 15 15
MMCZ 205N 869W 1 10 1 1 13 PENSACOLA FL X X X 14 14
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 12 12
MMMD 210N 897W X X 2 1 3 GULFPORT MS X X X 11 11
MARATHON FL X 6 4 2 12 BURAS LA X X X 11 11
MIAMI FL X 1 3 4 8 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 8 8
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 4 6 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 15 17
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 16 17
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 12 13
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6
SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2
KEY WEST FL X 10 4 2 16
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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