Tropical Storm LESTER

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TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152004
1500Z WED OCT 13 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 100.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 25NE  45SE  45SW  25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 100.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 100.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.9N 101.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  45SE  45SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 101.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 100.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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