Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152004
0300Z TUE OCT 12 2004
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO
ACAPULCO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  97.2W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  97.2W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  97.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.0N  98.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.1N  99.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 100.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 102.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  97.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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