Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152004
2100Z MON OCT 11 2004
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO
ACAPULCO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  96.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  96.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  96.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.4N  97.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.3N  97.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.2N  98.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.2N  99.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 14.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  96.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
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