Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
1500Z THU SEP 16 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING SAN CARLOS...TO LA PAZ.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 110.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 111.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.4N 112.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.6N 113.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.0N 114.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 27.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.5N 115.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
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