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Hurricane JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
0900Z THU SEP 16 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING SAN CARLOS...TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.6N 110.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.1N 113.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.0N 114.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
FORECASTER SISKO/JARVINEN
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 08:56:10 UTC