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Hurricane JAVIER (Text)

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
2100Z WED SEP 15 2004
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA...INCLUDING SAN
CARLOS...TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 109.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.6N 110.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 109.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
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