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Hurricane JAVIER (Text)

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
1500Z WED SEP 15 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
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