Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
0300Z TUE SEP 14 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  930 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 107.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.7N 108.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.8N 111.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
 
 
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