Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
2100Z MON SEP 13 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 108.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 106.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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