Hurricane JAVIER
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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
2100Z MON SEP 13 2004
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.1W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 108.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 106.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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