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Hurricane JAVIER
ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
1500Z MON SEP 13 2004
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 106.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 107.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 105.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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