Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
0900Z MON SEP 13 2004
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 105.1W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 105.1W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 106.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 105.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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