Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
2100Z SUN SEP 12 2004
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 103.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 106.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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