Tropical Storm JAVIER

ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
1500Z SUN SEP 12 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 102.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 102.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 13.3N 103.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.2N 105.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 105.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 102.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
$$
NNNN