Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112004
2100Z MON AUG 30 2004
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 103.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.0N 104.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 103.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BERG/LAWRENCE
 
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