ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072004 1500Z FRI AUG 20 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N 139.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 141.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 142.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 144.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 137.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Aug-2004 14:53:02 UTC