Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
1500Z MON SEP 20 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  46.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 275SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  46.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  45.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.7N  47.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N  48.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N  49.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N  49.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 32.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 41.0N  44.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 51.0N  45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  46.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
 
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